Nine tight Senate races hinge on fixing Social Security by 2032

The Social Security trust fund is projected to be depleted by the fourth quarter of 2032. Without legislative action before that deadline, beneficiaries face automatic benefit cuts of 22 percent. This looming deadline has placed specific policy questions at the center of nine closely contested Senate races this November.

Voters appear to prioritize solvency over status quo. A recent survey by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found that 81 percent of voters in competitive states prefer a candidate with a concrete plan to avoid cuts over one who promises not to touch the program. Despite this preference, many campaign platforms lack detailed reform proposals. The Peterson Foundation and MS NOW identified nine races where candidates have explicitly addressed the program's future, including contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, and New Hampshire.

In Alaska, incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan opposes raising the retirement age but voted for the Social Security Fairness Act. His Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mary Peltola, campaigns on eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits. MS NOW rates this race a toss-up. In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek advocates removing the payroll tax cap to increase revenue from high earners. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson opposes benefit cuts but previously voted to reduce Social Security Administration funding by up to $452 million. The race is rated as leaning Republican.

Maine incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins supports adjusting the payroll tax cap and creating an independent expert commission. Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, wants to raise the threshold and expand benefits. Both candidates oppose raising the retirement age to 70. MS NOW calls the Maine contest a toss-up. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed pushes for eliminating the tax cap and taxes on benefits. Republican Mike Rogers favors a bipartisan committee approach, echoing his past support for private investment accounts. The Michigan race is also rated a toss-up.

In Nebraska, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts proposes making Social Security benefits completely tax-free, a move that reduces program revenue. Independent candidate Dan Osborn counters by calling for the removal of the payroll tax cap. MS NOW rates the Nebraska race likely Republican. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas opposes benefit cuts and supports raising benefits for seniors. His Republican opponent, John Sununu, previously supported diverting payroll taxes to individual investment accounts. Pappas voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act due to its Medicaid cuts, while Sununu has not detailed a specific plan in this campaign.

These six states represent a subset of the 35 Senate seats up for election. The outcomes will shape the congressional balance as lawmakers prepare to address the funding shortfall. Candidates in these races have varied in their approaches, ranging from tax-free benefits to cap removals, but all face the same mathematical deadline in 2032.