Syria Moves to Join Mecca Pact as Ankara Gains Leverage

The Middle East security architecture is shifting as Syria works to integrate into a new regional bloc. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani confirmed on Saturday that negotiations are underway to assess the country's entry into the Mecca alliance, according to state media reports.

The pact currently unites Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, with Egypt also in potential joining discussions. Yoni Ben-Menachem, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, described the move as a strategic play by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to expand a Sunni Islamist axis. Ben-Menachem told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that this alignment serves Turkish interests and positions the alliance to fill a potential power vacuum if Iran's Islamic regime collapses.

Ben-Menachem argued that the pact was constructed with the expectation that Iran is nearing collapse. He theorized that the alliance will absorb Sunni countries outside the Muslim Brotherhood to counter the influence of the Shi’ite axis. He predicted that Qatar would soon announce it is considering membership, further broadening the coalition's reach.

Despite the new bloc's formation, Iran has responded positively to the Mecca Pact. Officials in Tehran view the alliance as a move away from Washington, which they believe weakens United States influence in the Middle East and the Gulf. Senior officials from the pact countries held open talks with Tehran last week to discuss these developments.

Ben-Menachem linked Syria's diplomatic shifts to its military ambitions. He stated that Damascus seeks to claim the Golan Heights, territory Israel captured during the 1967 Six Day War. While he acknowledged that the desire for expansion is not solely a reaction to Israel's current security zone, he argued it is part of a long-standing aspiration to extend Syrian control, noting the country's military presence in Lebanon until 2005.

Syria is currently restructuring its military using more than 130 armed groups dispersed across the country. Ben-Menachem identified Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as the backbone of this new force, which he said is being built with Turkish support. Israeli security sources view this emerging army as a threat because its members are jihadists who may seek to attack Israel in the future.

Israel maintains that the threat justifies its presence in the security zone. Ben-Menachem noted that Israel considers the risk of withdrawal too high, citing the possibility that the new Syrian forces could replicate the attack Hamas launched against Jewish communities along the Gaza border.