Hezbollah prepares drones and funds for war if Iran's regime falls

Hezbollah will likely sit out renewed military operations between the United States and Iran unless the survival of the Iranian regime is directly threatened, a senior Lebanese official told The National on Saturday. The militia currently possesses a weakened military capacity but has signaled it would re-enter the conflict if the leadership in Tehran faces an existential crisis.

The official defined a specific trigger for this intervention. The group considers the red line crossed if the current leadership is eliminated, mirroring the event that occurred on February 28 when a joint US-Israeli strike killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “We knew earlier this year, when the war in the region first broke out, that Hezbollah would join the fighting if [late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei were killed,” the anonymous official said. “We even informed the Americans about it.”

Lebanese security personnel report that Hezbollah has spent at least three months preparing for a resumption of hostilities. The organization used the lull in fighting since June to rearm, focusing on procuring explosives and producing drones capable of reaching the security zone. Two sources told Reuters that the group received tens of millions of dollars from Iran to boost its capabilities, a sum that adds to the approximately $200 million provided by Tehran earlier this month.

Security officials also stated that the group is restoring command-and-control structures that collapsed during previous key battles. In response to questions from Reuters, Hezbollah's media office rejected the claim that its systems had broken down. Meanwhile, a US State Department spokesman said Washington would continue to restrict the group's finances through sanctions, while a US Treasury spokesperson noted that Iran is running out of ways to move money.

Diplomatic efforts are also underway in Beirut. A senior Gulf diplomatic source told the Lebanese newspaper Ad-Diyar that US President Donald Trump pledged to secure a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon if the capital joins the Abraham Accords. The source described these promises as official commitments, though the report did not identify the diplomat or provide supporting documents. The White House has not confirmed the claims, and no timetable for implementation was specified.

Israeli officials responded to the report by insisting that Israel will not withdraw its forces before Hezbollah is disarmed. KAN news reported last month that Hezbollah operatives have maintained a presence in southern Lebanon's pilot zones. The group is gathering intelligence and recuperating its fighting ability in these areas.

The US and Iran have not yet announced a schedule for further military actions. The outcome of diplomatic talks in Beirut regarding the Abraham Accords remains pending. The next major development will depend on whether the Iranian regime determines that its survival is at stake.