Inflation and weak GOP picks drove losses

Inflation and poor candidate quality drove Democratic gains in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to The AP Voter Poll. The survey of voters in all 50 states shows that economic pressure and dissatisfaction with Republican leadership outweighed partisan loyalty for many Americans.

Voters cited grocery bills, gas prices, and utility costs as primary reasons for their votes. The poll indicates that about two-thirds of voters nationwide believed Donald Trump’s policies made the economy worse. Among this group, roughly eight in ten said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local House race.

The financial strain was visible in both swing states and Republican strongholds. In Texas, about two in ten voters reported that inflation caused severe hardship for their families. Three-quarters of these voters backed Democrat James Talarico for the Senate. Talarico also won the majority of the six in ten Texas voters who reported moderate financial hardship.

Blame for rising costs fell squarely on the White House. Voters linked high prices to Trump’s tariffs and his war in Iran. The poll notes that Trump promised to bring down prices during his campaign two years ago. His failure to deliver on that specific pledge weighed heavily on his party’s candidates.

Candidate selection also played a major role in the results. Trump endorsed Republicans who voters viewed as flawed or lacking in experience. In South Carolina, voters chose the Democratic challenger over Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham. About six in ten South Carolina voters said Graham lacked the experience to serve in the Senate.

Similar patterns emerged in other states. In Texas, Trump backed Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in the primary. Paxton had been impeached but not convicted. Two-thirds of Texas Senate voters said he lacked the character to be a senator. In North Carolina, six in ten voters said Republican nominee Michael Whatley was too supportive of Trump. They instead elected former Governor Roy Cooper.

Trust in government remains low across the political spectrum. More than half of voters said government corruption was a key factor in their Congressional vote. This concern was nearly as high as the share who cited the cost of living. Trump’s personal finances, including over $1 billion in earnings from meme coins and cryptocurrency last year, contributed to this view. He also sought donations from companies to build a White House ballroom after demolishing the East Wing.

About two-thirds of voters said Trump does not have the right priorities. The overwhelming majority of these voters supported Democratic House candidates. The poll suggests that voters are less focused on party affiliation and more on specific policy failures and candidate demeanor.

Democrats face a challenging path forward despite their victories. Only about half of voters held a favorable view of the Democratic Party, compared to about four in ten who viewed the GOP positively. Roughly two in ten voters who chose Democratic candidates still held a negative view of the party as a whole. Many voters expressed frustration with both parties, with about two in ten saying neither party was better equipped to handle the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, taxes, or immigration.

The results suggest a desire for congressional oversight rather than a mandate for Democratic control. About seven in ten voters said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency. This included about four in ten Republicans. In Maine, voters favored Democrat Troy Jackson over incumbent Susan Collins primarily because they wanted change rather than experience.