Final Week Ad Spend Points to a Shift in House Control

The central question in the final week of the 2026 midterm election is not whether Democrats will take the House, but how many seats they will win. Ad spending data indicates a wide field of competitive races rather than a narrow margin for error.

An analysis by NPR found that 70 House districts are seeing at least six figures in ad spending from both parties in the days leading up to the November 3 election. This expansive competition suggests the battle is about the size of the Democratic gain, not just the possibility of one.

The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as competitive but leaning toward the Republican side. Given the historical tendency for the party out of power to gain seats in midterm cycles, the current Republican margin of 218 to 214 appears vulnerable.

Spending is concentrated in specific battlegrounds. Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District are the most expensive races, with more than $12 million planned in each. Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts also see heavy investment.

These districts include areas where Republicans recently redrew boundaries to reduce Democratic voting power. Alabama’s 2nd District and Tennessee’s 9th District fall into this category. Other high-spend areas, such as Kentucky’s 6th and Arkansas’ 2nd Districts, voted for Donald Trump by more than 10 points in the 2024 presidential election.

On average, the 70 districts receiving substantial ad support from both sides voted for Trump by nine points in 2024. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Republican House campaign arm have both identified 60 of these districts as priorities.

Several factors are driving the competitive environment. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 10-point lead among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living issues, including gas prices and tariffs, remain the top concern for voters.

Redistricting has also altered the map. Following a Supreme Court decision that rolled back parts of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans shifted lines to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats such as Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats made similar adjustments in California to affect districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley.

Only Figures and Soto currently hold districts rated as favoring Republicans. In other swing areas, Republicans have reduced ad reservations in recent weeks. This includes districts held by Democratic Representatives Adam Gray in California, Nellie Pou in New Jersey, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez in Washington, as well as the district of retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon in Nebraska.

Not every race on the list will be close. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's districts in play gave Trump close to 60 percent of the vote in 2024 and have seen little to no ad spending from either party.