Key House Races Determine Night

Democrats appear ready to reclaim the House majority on Tuesday.

The party currently holds 214 seats, while Republicans hold 218. A previous analysis identified 70 competitive districts where both parties spent heavily. The margin in these races will define the night's outcome.

Results from Kentucky's 6th District and Indiana's 5th District will likely arrive first. Polls close there at 6 p.m. ET. In 2024, President Trump won Kentucky's 6th by 15 points and Indiana's 5th by 17 points. Both races saw heavy spending. Zach Dembo faces Ralph Alvarado in Kentucky. Florida also counts votes quickly and contains more than six toss-up districts. Pia Dandiya runs against Casey Askar in Florida's 22nd District. Jared Moskowitz faces Scott Singer in the redrawn Florida 25th.

A handful of races saw over $10 million in ad spending in the final seven days. This data comes from AdImpact. Michigan's 7th District is one such race. William Lawrence challenges incumbent Tom Barrett in a seat Trump won by one percent in 2024. In Michigan's 10th, Christina Hines faces Mike Bouchard. Mike Lawler in New York's 17th may hold his seat due to a spending advantage against Cait Conley. Three of Iowa's four House races are among the most expensive. High costs are driven by competitive governor and Senate contests.

A Supreme Court decision rolling back part of the Voting Rights Act led many Republican-led states to redraw maps. These changes aimed to eliminate Democratic-friendly districts. The new political environment has made seats like Alabama's 2nd, Ohio's 9th, and North Carolina's 1st competitive. Shomari Figures, Marcy Kaptur, and Don Davis hold these seats. In Texas, Latino voters may support Democrats to protect Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th and Henry Cuellar in the 28th.

The race in Arkansas's 2nd District has attracted significant attention. Incumbent French Hill faces challenger Chris Jones. Close to $10 million will be spent in the Little Rock-based seat by the time polls close. Trump carried the district by 15 points in 2024. In Ohio, Mike Turner in the 10th and Mike Carey in the 15th face challenges in districts stretching between the suburbs of Dayton and Columbus. Trump won both by roughly 10 points in 2024. The margin in the North Carolina Senate race between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley could also impact the 3rd District. Greg Murphy's district absorbed more Democratic-leaning voters after redistricting.