Likud Leads but Falls Short of Majority in Israel Election

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest single bloc in Israel’s parliament, but early counts show his right-wing coalition remains short of the 61 seats required to govern the 120-seat Knesset. The former army chief, Gadi Eisenkot, also lacks a clear majority, forcing both sides into a complex negotiation period that could last weeks or months.

Voter turnout exceeded 77 percent, signaling a high-stakes contest. Analysts warn that the current lead for Netanyahu is inflated because early results are skewed toward right-leaning districts. A large volume of absentee ballots, primarily cast by military personnel, remains uncounted, meaning final numbers may not be clear for another day or two.

The political landscape remains fragmented. Eisenkot’s camp appears dependent on parties led by Israel’s Arab minority to reach a majority. During the campaign, most Jewish opposition leaders, including Avigdor Lieberman, pledged not to form a government with Arab-majority lists. However, Arab parties, which represent one-fifth of the population, turned out in high numbers and may hold the balance of power.

Netanyahu addressed his supporters overnight, declaring that the right-wing bloc possesses a decisive majority among the Jewish public. He pledged to form a strong national government but did not officially declare victory. Eisenkot countered that the public had chosen change, stating that his coalition would work quickly to form a stable Zionist government.

The election serves as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership amid his corruption trial and on the country’s religious and secular direction. His government has pursued a hardline nationalist path over the past four years, including a disputed judicial overhaul and wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Despite these events, polling data suggests the relative strength of pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu voters has remained consistent.

Professor Tamar Hermann, a pollster at the Israeli Democracy Institute, noted that the balance between the two main sides has not shifted as dramatically as many predicted following the attacks on October 7, 2023. Veteran journalist Yaakov Katz described the upcoming coalition talks as a process of political wizardry where parties will trade cabinet posts and budgets for support.

Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra'am party, said his group expects partners to soften their stance on coalition rules after the vote. He noted that politicians often speak differently after elections. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s allies have begun casting Arab parties as a threat to delegitimize potential opposition coalitions.

President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders next week after final results are presented. He will task the candidate most likely to form a coalition with doing so within six weeks. If no agreement is reached, a new election will be called. Netanyahu’s current government will remain in a caretaker role without the power to enact major policy changes during this transition.