Knesset Math: Shas Blocks Likud-Free Coalition as UTJ Opens Talks

Shas chairman Arye Deri has ruled out joining a government led by the opposition bloc without Likud. The position was confirmed by ultra-Orthodox sources familiar with negotiations to form the next government following Tuesday's elections for the 26th Knesset.

The sources indicated a fundamental split between the two major ultra-Orthodox parties. United Torah Judaism (UTJ) is emerging as a potential partner for the opposition leaders. Shas, however, has made clear it does not intend to join such a government unless Likud is included.

Deri stated in closed-door discussions that he is unwilling to join a government led by Gadi Eisenkot. According to the sources, he viewed the Oslo Accords as sufficient for the opposition and was not prepared to sit with the Left again. He suggested that if a right-wing government could not be formed, Shas might join a unity government, but only together with Likud.

The 26th Knesset election results left neither major bloc with the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats. The opposition bloc holds 48 seats. The Arab parties hold 19 seats.

The three main opposition parties, Yashar, B'Yachad, and the Democrats, hold 41 seats in total. Adding UTJ, which holds seven seats, brings that coalition to 48 seats. This remains 13 seats short of the required majority.

If both ultra-Orthodox parties joined the three opposition parties, the combined strength would be 54 seats. This is still seven seats short of a majority. Including the entire opposition bloc, including Yisrael Beytenu, with both ultra-Orthodox parties would produce exactly 61 seats.

That mathematical possibility is complicated by Avigdor Liberman's opposition to joining a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties. It is also complicated by Deri's refusal to support an Eisenkot-led government without Likud. Another option is a minority government relying on outside support from Arab parties.

The three opposition parties, UTJ, and Ra'am hold 56 seats in total. Additional support from the Joint List would raise that figure to 67 seats. A government does not necessarily require 61 votes in a confidence vote. A simple majority of those voting in favor over those voting against is sufficient.

A government supported by 56 Knesset members could pass if the Joint List's 11 lawmakers abstained and the remaining 53 voted against it. In that scenario, the vote would pass 56 to 53. A coalition of just the three opposition parties and UTJ, with 48 seats, would require at least 25 additional lawmakers to abstain or be absent.

The military conscription law remains a major obstacle. Ultra-Orthodox sources expressed cautious optimism about reaching agreements with the opposition leaders. They stressed that the outcome would depend on the opposition's willingness to compromise. The sources said if removing Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich from power is the top priority, common ground on conscription is possible. Otherwise, the opposition leaders will not have a government.