Israel faces deadlock after election

Israel's recent election has resulted in a political stalemate. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, holds a clear path to forming a new government. The final tallies show that opposition parties won more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc. However, Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, cannot reach a governing majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties. His allies ruled out this alliance during the campaign.

Netanyahu's Likud party received the highest number of votes. Despite this, his coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties falls short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The process to form a government begins in the coming days. Israel's president will consult with leaders of all elected parties. Each party will recommend a candidate for the role. The president selects the individual most likely to assemble a coalition, not necessarily the leader of the largest party.

The selected candidate has 28 days to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers. The president may grant an extension of up to 14 days. If the effort fails, the president can offer the opportunity to another candidate. Based on the results, Eisenkot is more likely to receive recommendations from newly elected lawmakers than Netanyahu. This advantage is complicated by his bloc's lack of a majority without Arab-led parties. These parties represent 21% of the population, who generally identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Eisenkot stated that the Arab parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Some leaders in these parties have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or to condemn it as a terrorist organization. Netanyahu faces a similar hurdle. His traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power without new alliances. One potential outcome is a unity government between the two leaders. Media reports suggest President Trump favors this arrangement, though this has not been independently confirmed.

A unity government would likely include moderate parties from the center and right. Such a coalition could facilitate cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities. These priorities include the reconstruction of Gaza and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. The two leaders would need to resolve questions about who serves as prime minister and whether the position rotates. Another possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties. Together, these groups command more than 67 seats.

This arrangement remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have rejected it. Support from Arab parties would not necessarily require them to join the cabinet. They could support a minority government from outside the coalition. A third possibility is a return to the polls. Israel's president has urged leaders to avoid a new election, especially after recent high turnout. Netanyahu may believe a repeat election favors him. He anticipates that Arab turnout could decline if voters feel excluded. Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote might also be less likely to return.

A fourth possibility involves defections. Netanyahu would need to attract roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc. Eisenkot would need approximately 13 defectors if he continues to exclude Arab parties. During the stalemate, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could advance legislation. Eisenkot's bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset. They also hope to pass legislation establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Allies may also try to reverse laws that critics say weakened democratic institutions.

A renewed war with Iran could disrupt these legislative moves. In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel must complete its mission against Iran. He described the country as an existential threat. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use national security for political needs. A new conflict, particularly one involving the United States, could increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter an emergency unity government. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst, said Netanyahu has a political incentive to renew fighting during the formation period. He noted that an emergency would mount pressure on Eisenkot to join a unity government.