UNM holds 20.3% chance for College Football Playoff bid

The University of New Mexico football team currently holds a 20.3% probability of advancing to the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. This figure ranks 18th among the 138 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Lobos are one of two frontrunners for the automatic bid reserved for the highest-ranked team from a Group of Six conference.

New Mexico secured its second consecutive bowl appearance on Saturday after defeating North Dakota State 21-16. The victory improved the team's record to 6-1. Head coach Jason Eck noted that the celebration was quieter than the previous year, when the team smoked cigars and wore branded shirts. Eck said he threw the custom bowling pin given to him by the nonprofit Bowl Season on the ground because the staff never discussed bowl eligibility as a primary goal this season.

The Lobos are positioned to win the Mountain West Conference championship, a feat that would mark a historic achievement in the program's 126-year history. To secure the conference title, UNM must win its remaining conference games. However, the path to the 12-team playoff is not entirely within the team's control.

Boise State of the Pac-12 Conference leads the race for the Group of Six spot with a 51.7% chance of making the playoff. The Broncos are also 6-1. ESPN’s model indicates that UNM trails Boise State in most major performance metrics. The Lobos would require a loss from the Broncos in their final four games to open the door for a New Mexico selection.

Other teams in the mix include Texas-San Antonio, which holds a 16.8% chance, and Oregon State, which sits at 4.6%. If UNM wins all six of its remaining games, including the conference championship, it could still be left out of the playoff if higher-ranked teams perform well.

If the Lobos win the Mountain West title but miss the playoff, they are likely to be selected for one of the 17 bowls owned and operated by ESPN Events. League spokesman Stuart Buchanan stated that ESPN is not required to select the conference champion. The team would likely be invited to a game played in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Three ESPN Events bowls are located in that region: the Frisco Bowl on December 15, the Armed Forces Bowl on December 22, and the First Responder Bowl on January 2. Payouts for these games range from $650,000 to $2.4 million. The Mountain West also has a tie-in for the Cactus Bowl on December 26, which paid $1.6 million last year, if a slot opens up from the Big Ten or Big 12.

Eck said the team’s focus remains on the conference championship rather than just securing a bowl spot. He acknowledged his love for bowl games but emphasized that the current roster has its sights set on a higher achievement.