Voters in Brazil, Serbia, and Hungary reject Trump-backed leaders

President Donald Trump has demonstrated a powerful ability to shape Republican primary outcomes in the United States, where he claimed in August that 97% of the candidates he supported won their races. He successfully forced out figures he disfavor, including Senator John Cornyn of Texas and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Yet, as recent votes in Brazil, Serbia, and Hungary show, that same persuasive power struggles to translate across borders.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a longtime Trump ally, and ran on a platform aligned with the current U.S. administration. The result marks a clear rejection of the political brand that Trump has championed in the region.

In Serbia, a student-led movement ousted the ruling party of Aleksandar Vucic during elections held last weekend. Vucic, who served as president from 2017 and previously as prime minister, had cultivated close ties with Trump. During his concession speech, Vucic blamed the loss on a "legitimization of a revolution carried out by the people with direct support from various European countries and the American deep state, the one that opposes President Trump."

Hungary also saw a shift in power earlier this year. Vice President JD Vance visited the country and publicly supported Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a staunch Trump ally. Orban lost his seat and was removed from office after 16 years in power. In Israel, Trump endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the October 27 election. The Associated Press reported that Netanyahu's Likud party appeared to lose its parliamentary majority, though final results were still pending.

Experts suggest that national concerns typically outweigh international endorsements. Cas Mudde, a professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, noted that voters prioritize local issues over global alliances. Stijn van Kessel, a comparative politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, added that far-right leaders often claim shared victories to appear part of a global movement, but these bonds can weaken when domestic interests collide.

The relationship between Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni illustrates this volatility. Tensions rose earlier this year when Italy refused to allow U.S. aircraft to use a NATO airbase for operations in Iran. Trump later claimed Meloni begged him for a photo at the G7 summit, a statement she denied. Despite these strains, right-wing movements remain active. Marine Le Pen leads polls in France, and the AfD party won 20.8% of the vote in Germany's February 2025 federal election.

Trump's domestic approval ratings remain near record lows, particularly regarding the Iran war and rising energy costs. David Barker, a government professor at American University, observed that voters often support experimental leaders during economic frustration but move on when those experiments fail. He stated that at this point, Trump undermines his allies' ability to maintain support.