Israel faces difficult path to forming new government after election

Israeli election results have been finalized, leaving the nation without a clear winner for the prime ministership. The outcome has set the stage for intense negotiations among party leaders who must assemble a coalition of at least 61 seats to govern the 120-member Knesset.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, both face steep hurdles. Neither camp achieved a majority on its own. The Arab-led parties emerged as a potential kingmaker after winning a historic 19 seats, giving them leverage in the coalition talks.

The most direct path to stability would involve Eisenkot partnering with the Arab-led parties to form a 67-seat coalition against Netanyahu. However, this alliance carries political risks. Israel’s Arab citizens, who comprise 20 percent of the population, have close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Netanyahu has already characterized such an alliance as a threat to Israel’s Jewish identity, pressuring Eisenkot’s right-leaning allies to reject the idea.

An alternative scenario involves a unity government led by Netanyahu. He could attempt to persuade Eisenkot and his right-leaning allies to join his bloc, which would also result in a 67-seat majority. This arrangement would send the Arab-led parties, along with ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox factions, to the opposition. While this government could address issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox, it would require Eisenkot to break his pledge not to serve alongside Netanyahu following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

Netanyahu may also look to poach defectors from the opposition bloc. He could target right-wing figures such as Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, who hold nationalist views that make partnering with Arab parties difficult. However, both leaders have long-standing personal conflicts with Netanyahu and are opposed to the military exemptions that are a core demand of his ultra-Orthodox allies. Eisenkot has fewer options for recruiting defectors, as Netanyahu’s right-wing and far-right allies have remained loyal to him for years.

If neither side secures a majority, Israel may face new elections early next year. In that scenario, the current government would serve in a caretaker role until a new vote is held. A repeat election could disadvantage Netanyahu’s opponents, who gained momentum in this vote but may lose the boost from tens of thousands of Israelis who traveled abroad to cast ballots. Netanyahu, meanwhile, would gain time to strengthen his position. Smaller right-wing parties that failed to enter parliament may not run again, potentially consolidating support for larger far-right parties. Israel held five elections in three and a half years following a similar stalemate in 2019.