Mid-Round Pitchers Outperform Top 24 in 2026
Only eight of the first 24 drafted starters finished as top-24 performers, while pitchers in the 25-36 range returned $155.6 in value.
By Ana Salazar ·
Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers posted a 1.80 earned run average and a 0.80 walks plus hits per inning pitched mark in 2026. His 37.9 percent strikeout rate ranks as the second-best in Major League Baseball history, excluding the shortened 2020 season. This performance placed him above every starter selected in the first round of most fantasy drafts.
The 2026 season marked a departure from historical trends for starting pitchers. From 2021 through 2025, the top 24 starters by average draft position combined for at least $259.1 in value according to FanGraphs Player Rater. In 2026, that group generated just $227.00 total. Of the top 24 starters drafted, only eight finished the year as top-24 performers.
The value gap widened in the middle of the draft pool. Pitchers selected from the 25th through the 36th starting pitcher slot returned $155.6 in value. This figure nearly eclipsed the $158.94 generated by the top 12 starters. The third group outperformed the second group, consisting of pitchers 13 through 24 who returned $67.83.
The 25-36 range featured several high-performing arms including Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, and Chase Burns. Sonny Gray and Zack Wheeler also contributed value in this tier. However, the group included notable underperformers such as Spencer Strider, Emmett Sheehan, and Nick Lodolo. Tyler Glasnow, Brandon Woodruff, and Blake Snell did not pitch enough innings to justify their selection costs in that range.
Looking back at the last five years, pitchers in the 25-36 range have consistently outperformed those in the 13-24 range. In 2024, the 25-36 group produced $172.09, exceeding the top 12 group's $191.76 only slightly in relative terms but far exceeding the middle group. The 2026 data confirms this trend, with the mid-round group generating more than double the value of the second round of starting pitcher picks.
For the 2027 season, the pool of young, unproven talent available in the mid-rounds differs from 2026. Kade Anderson did not perform to elite standards in his limited action. Didier Fuentes and Grant Taylor face uncertain roles, keeping their valuation reasonable. Hype surrounds Andrew Painter, Jackson Jobe, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith, though they are expected to be selected in the 200-plus range of drafts.
Jared Jones and Walbert Ureña represent the best options in the younger category for 2027. Both possess larger track records than the 2026 crop, most of whom retained rookie eligibility at the start of last season. Jones and Ureña offer similar upside potential without the same level of unknown risk associated with the 2026 breakout group.
The 2026 season also featured significant movements in player rankings for 2027. Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Drew Rasmussen, Jesus Luzardo, and Zack Wheeler all moved up. Rasmussen, now unrestricted by the Rays, held up to a career-high workload and maintained a 2.84 ERA ceiling since 2020. Luzardo’s value improved despite an inflated ERA in previous seasons, driven by advanced metric gains.
Source: CBS Sports
